Valley Fever Spreads Through a Warmer, Destructive Western US


In the following decades, researchers discovered some important facts about fever. They found that it is endemic in some parts of the world, that the fungus that causes the disease lives in the soil, that most people infected with it have no symptoms, and, more importantly, that the patterns weather and weather conditions have an impact on the spread of Coccidioides.

A few years Previously, Morgan Gorris, an Earth systems scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, decided to investigate an important question: What makes a place so hospitable? Cocci? He soon discovered that the fungus thrives in a set of specific conditions. U.S. counties where valley end fever has an average annual temperature of more than 50 degrees Fahrenheit and less than 600 millimeters of rain a year. “Actually, they’re hot and dry provinces,” Gorris said. He pinpoints the geographical areas that meet the parameters on a map and overlaps them with CDC estimates of where Cocci grew. Sure, the counties, which range from West Texas to the Southwest and all the way to California (with a small patch of Washington) match.

But Gorris takes his analysis a lakang pa. He decided to see what would happen to high fever under a long-winded climate change scenario. That is, will the disease spread if people continue to emit greenhouse gases as usual. “Once I did that, I saw that by the end of the 21st century, much of the western U.S. would be endemic to high fever,” he said. “Our endemic area could extend as far north as the U.S.-Canada border.”

There is reason to believe this Cocci The expansion may have already happened, Bridget Barker, a researcher at Northern Arizona University, told Grist. Parts of Utah, Washington, and northern Arizona have all had fever fever attacks recently. “It’s about us because, yeah, it’s going to show that it’s happening now,” Barker said. “If we look at the overlap in ground temperatures, we really see that Cocci seems to be restrained by freezing. ”Barker is still working on determining what the ground temperature scale is for Cocci fungus is. However, in general, the fact that more and more in the U.S. will soon have conditions that are ripe. Cocci the increase, he said, is worrying.

There is a widespread economic burden that accompanies the potential spread of fever blight to new areas. Gorris held a separate analysis aligned with future warming scenarios and found that, by the end of the century, the average total annual cost of fever fever infections could rise to $ 18.5 billion per year, from $ 3.9 billion today.

Gorris ’research examines how and where Cocci may move as the climate warms. But what has caused the rise in cases where Cocci well -located, such as Ventura, where Jesse Merrick’s family home burned down, is still an area of ​​investigation.

Jesse thinks the cause of his fever fever infection is obvious. “I’ve clearly seen a link between fire and high fever,” he told Grist. But scientists aren’t sure what causes environmental factors Cocci transmission, and neither are public officials.

In a Bulletin of December 2018, Ventura County health officer Robert Levin doubts the connection between Cocci and fires. “As a health officer for Ventura County, I don’t see a clear connection between the fires and Cocci infections, “he said, noting that only one of the 4,000 firefighters who worked at Thomas Fire in 2017 had high fever. Jennifer Head, a doctoral student at UC Berkeley who works for a lab studied the effects of wildfires on net fever, did not find much evidence supporting such a connection. ”The media often talks about fires and beatings, and the common assumption is that fires increase fever fever, “he said. But the closest thing the Head can find that connects the two is an unchanged based abstract-a summary of science-that is not linked in much more paper.



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